1.) the St. Louis Cardinals Gatekeepers to the West.
I had the Cards going deeper into last years' playoffs, with twin aces Wainwright & Carpenter being (almost) my entire justification. Luckily, the Cards locked up Matt Holliday and his game-saving steel trap of a fielder's glove, and my predictions were shattered. Sarcasm abound.
Brad Penny and Kyle Lohse are both underwhelming but at least consistently so. Neither of these two will have a stellar year, but how great a pair does one need when proceeded by Wainwright & Carpenter. The pen, likewise, is no Spanish Armada, but I'd keep a keen eye on Ryan Franklin and Blake Hawksworth.
The infield needs very little introduction. Here's a bit on 'em all though:
1) Albert Pujols: A veritable machine.
2) Skip Schumaker: The very best old-timey name in baseball.
SS) Brendan Ryan: It seemed odd shipping Lugo off to Baltimore, the needs of these two teams didn't seem represented in the "swap." (wherein the Cards get a player T.B.A./$) I'm thinking there's a possibility Felipe Lopez takes short so that Skip can skipper second?
3B) David Freese: Losing de Rosa starts hurting here, now.
The outfield is definitely above average here as well, with Matt Holliday, Colby Rasmus and Ryan Ludwick representing a solid offensive unit.
Big Mac is back as batting coach, trying to straighten out some swings. As he put it, it was his timing and swingsmanship that net him all those home runs back when (not the hypertrophied biceps and Christmas ham of a neck) so we may see a little surge in overall O-production.
*Somehow, I glanced over Yadier Molina, who deserves to be mentioned as the premier defensive catcher in the league. In either league. Also, it appears there may be more to like about Brendan Ryan than meets an ALer's eye...when I said that trade made little sense I meant more for the Orioles, who seem to have had ONLY their middle infield locked up.*
All said and done, I don't think the Birds will have too much trouble taking home this division. The pitching is strong, the offense is formidable, and the holes aren't impossible to patch-up. Their only competition will be the surprising...
2) the Cincinnati Reds the Cincinnatians!
It's starting to seem like I'm putting a lot of faith on a lot of huge variables. The most variable rotation in baseball belongs to these Reds. If halfway through the season, Edinson Volquez has returned to form and Aroldis Chapman is performing to expectations, a rotation of Volquez, Harang, Arroyo, Chapman and whichever of these three: Micah Owings, Johnny Cueto, Homer Bailey figure it out best is downright terrifying. World Series worthy.
A nagging problem for the Reds has always been power. Joey Votto has some pop. Jay Bruce had garnered some hype. Orlando Cabrera (SS) and Scott Rolen (3B) will have to get in on the action. Anyway, pick up your radar- is Brandon Phillips under there? He was under mine too, with this line: HR- 20 Avg - .276 RBI - 98. Not too bad for a second basemen on a team hungry for any power source.
The Reds bullpen is also surprisingly strong, anchored by the prehistoric Arthur Rhodes; another reason I've got them pegged for a second place finish. Really though, Francisco Cordero, Danny Ray Herrera, to a certain extent Nick Masset, these are promising young pictures. They'll benefit greatly from Rhodes' sagacious advice and tips on how splitters were thrown in the Cretaceous. It'll be interesting to see how this season plays out for this arm-strong group of Midwesterners.
3) the Chicago Cubs of Cha-Town!
There will be a year that the curse of the Goat is broken. 2010 is not that year.
I know that Big Z is making audacious claims at fitness, health and recovery. I just wish that my imagination permitted me to think about him making these claims somewhere besides a pig roast, averring it wildly, drink sploshing everywhere, him running into his neighbors house and ripping the phone off the wall, etc.....
I think Dempster, Lilly, a Randy Wells coming off a pretty slick season, and Gorzellany will provide a decent enough safety net if Zambrano goes down hard as only large men do. Still have flame-throwing Marmol in the bullpen, and letterman Jeff Samardzija (whom I've always liked) spitting 'em with Grabow and Angel Guzman. They've got pitching covered from A-Y, so to speak.
Moving onto the offense.
At backstop we've got Geovany Soto and his accompanying question: was his rookie of the year campaign a flash in the pan or will he resume production? We'll have to see which Soto shows up.
The great Derrek Lee still helms first with an albeit loose grip, he's wont to get injured and leave the Cubbies to flounder. Maybe it's the Francophile in me that always wanted to give Fontenot and Theriot the benefit of the doubt, but their numbers are on a fairly steady dwindle. In 2006 Ryan Theriot hit .328. Now his highest number is the 15 errors he made last year in the field.
The outfield will have to be the backbone of the Cub offense. Fukodome, Marlon Byrd, and ex-Yanks Soriano & Xavier Nady make for a good squad.
4) the Milwaukee Brewers from the 23rd most populous U.S. City!
Ah, the Brew Crew. The Brewers represent an interesting little inverse of infield and outfield to me. In the infield, there's Prince Fielder, swinging his golden scepter. He's surrounded by young, agile infielders all good for season averages a hairline below three-hundred. The outfield has one dark spot, Carlos Gomez, and some starlight coming off Ryan Braun and Cory Hart. If the for-average hitters can all find away aboard and get washed home by the Prince and the aptly named Braun, then this line-up may find a way to eke production from balance.
Venturing into the bullpen, remember, we're still breathing rarefied air. Save-King Hoffman still reigns supreme, and along with journeyman LaTroy Hawkins, Todd Coffey, and Claudio Vargas, represents a mighty bullpen empire.
The starting pitching will be the Brewers downfall. Yovanni Gallardo is a veritable ace, but the rest of the slingers are a piecemeal and lackluster collection that'll fail in securing many wins. As may have already become evident, the first tenet of the Courant is belief in a strong starting staff. As much as I'd love to pull for a team with 'Brew Crew' for a sobriquet, they ain't got what it takes.
5) the Pittsburgh Pirates the boys from the Burgh!
You heard it here first. The first shall be first and the last shall be....second to last.
The Pirates have a wholly sub-standard infield in 1b) Steve "Who?" Pearce 2b) Akinori "Notsobad" Iwamura ss) Bobby "Remember when he was going to be one of the greats?" Crosby 3b) Andy "the less good brother" LaRoche and c) Ryan Do "it-just-so-and-so-with-my"mit(t).
Iiiiiin the outfield we've got the perennially disappointing Lastings Milledge, the super-promising and lightning-fast Andrew McCutchen, and the de facto bopper of the team: Garret Jones.
The rotation's nothing to get too worked up over either. Maholm as the ace. Zach Duke [who I guarantee has a far superior season than Maholm, and will in time be staff ace or conversely, as per Pirate law, is traded when he enters his prime] as second fiddle. I almost wrote "Ohlendork" instead of "Ohlendorf" which is an interesting and Freudian slip, given the cerebral nature of his game. Nothing but love for my ex-Yank. Nothing else to mention here.
The bullpen now sports Octavio Dotel and Joel Hanrahan, so, we'll see how that plays out. If it seems like I have nothing good to say about the Pirates, I truly am sorry. There are enough young players on this team to spike some interest, and more than anything I say I have some sort of chemical feeling about the patchwork way this particular Pirate team is put together. Maybe, it's this ragtag cadre of journeymen, trade-fodder and up & comers that have what it takes to escape the cellar. Some transcendent force that belies Sabremetrics and old-school statliners alike.
Or the Astros are terrible. Ladies and gentlemen, without further ado...
6) the Houston Astros the Heroes of H-Town
When your infield's single shining beacon is import Pedro Feliz, who at least to me, was the ostensible weak link of an otherwise bulletproof Phillies line-up, you've got a serious problem. Yes, I'm looking at you Geoff Blum, Kaz Matsui, and Tommy Manzella. Although give that last kid a chance, he hasn't really played much baseball yet.
Hunter Pence and Carlos Lee, two big bats roaming the outfield, will pack the only punch to be found on the 'stros.
The bullpen is abysmal.
The starting pitching really all boils down to two men. Roy Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez, who I imagine will sort of fade and crest, respectively, proportionally, as has already started to happen. Meaning, Wandy (who really disrupts the tedium that is all other-Rodriguezes of the MLB) will attain that sterling rep. held previously by Oswalt as Roy simmers down to the second staffer.
Not looking too great for Houston, to sum that all up.
Up Next: the NL West
