Pumped

I love Joba, that being said.

How pleasant and refreshing would it be to see a pitcher get a big strikeout and walk calmly off the mound?

the NL West

1.) the San Francisco Giants

The law of averages sort of demands that the Freak couldn't possibly have back-to-back-to-back Cy Young caliber seasons, but it seems to me that even a slightly diminished Tim Lincecum will be enough to anchor what has been, for years, a rotation solid enough to win a division. The real magic of this staff may be that Barry Zito, after years of post-excellence slumping, may be returning to form. I bandy that term around here, return to form, but if Zito pitches anything at all like what we know he's capable of, the Giants have the undisputed best play-off trio of SPs in Lincecum, Cain, Zito.

The Giants have always been lacking in the O department. Aubrey Huff is at first now, and he could provide some bump. They landed Mark deRosa in left, and while he's not enough of a generator to single-handedly power the team, he'll be a boost. Plus, there's the Pablo Sandoval, who weaponizes lumber like no other West Coaster and answers to Major League Baseball's single greatest nom de plume in the Kung Fu Panda.

The Giants have an upper-percentile bullpen too, featuring the likes of non-Beach Boy Brian Wilson, Jeremy Affeldt, veteran Guillermo Mota, etc. With pitching this strong, the offense needs not be titanic.

2.) the L.A. Dodgers

The Dodgers being perennial contenders may've given them what I'll admit is only a slight edge over the division darling Colorado Rockies. Operating under the Torre aegis scores points. The league's most fearsome outfield (in Kemp {last year's stats} HR: 26, RBI: 101, avg: .297 Ethier HR: 36, RBI: 106 avg: .272 + a career's worth of walk-off heroics {and he's already back at it} and Ramirez HR: 19, RBI: 63, avg: .290, on a suspension-truncated season) scores major points. A roster topped by Ranger outcast (and all around shitty person) Vincente Padilla saps them of enough points to not be my pick for NL West Champs.

Let's not forget that the Dodgers' still have Jonathan Broxton, one of the elite closers in the game, and a decent bullpen to set him up. They've also got the Billingsley & Kershaw duo. [Note: Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw sound more like two foppish gentrymen looking to open a loafer shop than athletes.] Hiroki Kuroda put together a pretty impressive season last year too.

Here's what the infield looks like, from 1st around to Catcher: James Loney, Blake deWitt, Rafael Furcal, Casey Blake, Russel Martin.

3.) the San Diego Padres

4.) the Colorado Rockies

5.) the Arizona Diamondbacks

Switch Johnson

I don't want to give up on the guy, I really don't. But I think Nick Johnson's chances as post-season DH [due to his fragility and heretofore lack of production] are pretty slim. I've speculated, since his signing, that whereas last year the Yankees made their big splash during the off-season and followed up with relatively tame trade deadline action, this year would have the big bat shipped in for play-off shoring up. So begins my list of potential candidates for replacement lumber when 'the Stick' snaps.

1) Shin-Soo Choo (Cleveland Indians): Undervalued in Cleveland, he and the Indians were unable to hammer something long-term out this off-season. He finished up last year batting .300 on the nose with 20 yard-balls. (Do we remember Nick Johnson's .279, 2HR line? Johnson's on-base percentage, his lone allure, was way higher. So there's that.)

2) Jermaine Dye (Unsigned): Amidst swirling rumours of collusive racism, Dye remains unemployed as the season kicks off. He got off to a hot start last year, then slumped, but his overall numbers should've garnered something better than the sole 3mil offer from the non-contending Nationals.

I'll keep this list going, although I wonder if I'll stumble across a stronger candidate than Choo.

the NL Central

1.) the St. Louis Cardinals Gatekeepers to the West.

I had the Cards going deeper into last years' playoffs, with twin aces Wainwright & Carpenter being (almost) my entire justification. Luckily, the Cards locked up Matt Holliday and his game-saving steel trap of a fielder's glove, and my predictions were shattered. Sarcasm abound.

Brad Penny and Kyle Lohse are both underwhelming but at least consistently so. Neither of these two will have a stellar year, but how great a pair does one need when proceeded by Wainwright & Carpenter. The pen, likewise, is no Spanish Armada, but I'd keep a keen eye on Ryan Franklin and Blake Hawksworth.

The infield needs very little introduction. Here's a bit on 'em all though:

1) Albert Pujols: A veritable machine.

2) Skip Schumaker: The very best old-timey name in baseball.

SS) Brendan Ryan: It seemed odd shipping Lugo off to Baltimore, the needs of these two teams didn't seem represented in the "swap." (wherein the Cards get a player T.B.A./$) I'm thinking there's a possibility Felipe Lopez takes short so that Skip can skipper second?

3B) David Freese: Losing de Rosa starts hurting here, now.

The outfield is definitely above average here as well, with Matt Holliday, Colby Rasmus and Ryan Ludwick representing a solid offensive unit.

Big Mac is back as batting coach, trying to straighten out some swings. As he put it, it was his timing and swingsmanship that net him all those home runs back when (not the hypertrophied biceps and Christmas ham of a neck) so we may see a little surge in overall O-production.

*Somehow, I glanced over Yadier Molina, who deserves to be mentioned as the premier defensive catcher in the league. In either league. Also, it appears there may be more to like about Brendan Ryan than meets an ALer's eye...when I said that trade made little sense I meant more for the Orioles, who seem to have had ONLY their middle infield locked up.*

All said and done, I don't think the Birds will have too much trouble taking home this division. The pitching is strong, the offense is formidable, and the holes aren't impossible to patch-up. Their only competition will be the surprising...

2) the Cincinnati Reds the Cincinnatians!

It's starting to seem like I'm putting a lot of faith on a lot of huge variables. The most variable rotation in baseball belongs to these Reds. If halfway through the season, Edinson Volquez has returned to form and Aroldis Chapman is performing to expectations, a rotation of Volquez, Harang, Arroyo, Chapman and whichever of these three: Micah Owings, Johnny Cueto, Homer Bailey figure it out best is downright terrifying. World Series worthy.

A nagging problem for the Reds has always been power. Joey Votto has some pop. Jay Bruce had garnered some hype. Orlando Cabrera (SS) and Scott Rolen (3B) will have to get in on the action. Anyway, pick up your radar- is Brandon Phillips under there? He was under mine too, with this line: HR- 20 Avg - .276 RBI - 98. Not too bad for a second basemen on a team hungry for any power source.

The Reds bullpen is also surprisingly strong, anchored by the prehistoric Arthur Rhodes; another reason I've got them pegged for a second place finish. Really though, Francisco Cordero, Danny Ray Herrera, to a certain extent Nick Masset, these are promising young pictures. They'll benefit greatly from Rhodes' sagacious advice and tips on how splitters were thrown in the Cretaceous. It'll be interesting to see how this season plays out for this arm-strong group of Midwesterners.

3) the Chicago Cubs of Cha-Town!

There will be a year that the curse of the Goat is broken. 2010 is not that year.

I know that Big Z is making audacious claims at fitness, health and recovery. I just wish that my imagination permitted me to think about him making these claims somewhere besides a pig roast, averring it wildly, drink sploshing everywhere, him running into his neighbors house and ripping the phone off the wall, etc.....

I think Dempster, Lilly, a Randy Wells coming off a pretty slick season, and Gorzellany will provide a decent enough safety net if Zambrano goes down hard as only large men do. Still have flame-throwing Marmol in the bullpen, and letterman Jeff Samardzija (whom I've always liked) spitting 'em with Grabow and Angel Guzman. They've got pitching covered from A-Y, so to speak.

Moving onto the offense.

At backstop we've got Geovany Soto and his accompanying question: was his rookie of the year campaign a flash in the pan or will he resume production? We'll have to see which Soto shows up.

The great Derrek Lee still helms first with an albeit loose grip, he's wont to get injured and leave the Cubbies to flounder. Maybe it's the Francophile in me that always wanted to give Fontenot and Theriot the benefit of the doubt, but their numbers are on a fairly steady dwindle. In 2006 Ryan Theriot hit .328. Now his highest number is the 15 errors he made last year in the field.

The outfield will have to be the backbone of the Cub offense. Fukodome, Marlon Byrd, and ex-Yanks Soriano & Xavier Nady make for a good squad.

4) the Milwaukee Brewers from the 23rd most populous U.S. City!

Ah, the Brew Crew. The Brewers represent an interesting little inverse of infield and outfield to me. In the infield, there's Prince Fielder, swinging his golden scepter. He's surrounded by young, agile infielders all good for season averages a hairline below three-hundred. The outfield has one dark spot, Carlos Gomez, and some starlight coming off Ryan Braun and Cory Hart. If the for-average hitters can all find away aboard and get washed home by the Prince and the aptly named Braun, then this line-up may find a way to eke production from balance.

Venturing into the bullpen, remember, we're still breathing rarefied air. Save-King Hoffman still reigns supreme, and along with journeyman LaTroy Hawkins, Todd Coffey, and Claudio Vargas, represents a mighty bullpen empire.

The starting pitching will be the Brewers downfall. Yovanni Gallardo is a veritable ace, but the rest of the slingers are a piecemeal and lackluster collection that'll fail in securing many wins. As may have already become evident, the first tenet of the Courant is belief in a strong starting staff. As much as I'd love to pull for a team with 'Brew Crew' for a sobriquet, they ain't got what it takes.

5) the Pittsburgh Pirates the boys from the Burgh!

You heard it here first. The first shall be first and the last shall be....second to last.

The Pirates have a wholly sub-standard infield in 1b) Steve "Who?" Pearce 2b) Akinori "Notsobad" Iwamura ss) Bobby "Remember when he was going to be one of the greats?" Crosby 3b) Andy "the less good brother" LaRoche and c) Ryan Do "it-just-so-and-so-with-my"mit(t).

Iiiiiin the outfield we've got the perennially disappointing Lastings Milledge, the super-promising and lightning-fast Andrew McCutchen, and the de facto bopper of the team: Garret Jones.

The rotation's nothing to get too worked up over either. Maholm as the ace. Zach Duke [who I guarantee has a far superior season than Maholm, and will in time be staff ace or conversely, as per Pirate law, is traded when he enters his prime] as second fiddle. I almost wrote "Ohlendork" instead of "Ohlendorf" which is an interesting and Freudian slip, given the cerebral nature of his game. Nothing but love for my ex-Yank. Nothing else to mention here.

The bullpen now sports Octavio Dotel and Joel Hanrahan, so, we'll see how that plays out. If it seems like I have nothing good to say about the Pirates, I truly am sorry. There are enough young players on this team to spike some interest, and more than anything I say I have some sort of chemical feeling about the patchwork way this particular Pirate team is put together. Maybe, it's this ragtag cadre of journeymen, trade-fodder and up & comers that have what it takes to escape the cellar. Some transcendent force that belies Sabremetrics and old-school statliners alike.

Or the Astros are terrible. Ladies and gentlemen, without further ado...

6) the Houston Astros the Heroes of H-Town

When your infield's single shining beacon is import Pedro Feliz, who at least to me, was the ostensible weak link of an otherwise bulletproof Phillies line-up, you've got a serious problem. Yes, I'm looking at you Geoff Blum, Kaz Matsui, and Tommy Manzella. Although give that last kid a chance, he hasn't really played much baseball yet.

Hunter Pence and Carlos Lee, two big bats roaming the outfield, will pack the only punch to be found on the 'stros.

The bullpen is abysmal.

The starting pitching really all boils down to two men. Roy Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez, who I imagine will sort of fade and crest, respectively, proportionally, as has already started to happen. Meaning, Wandy (who really disrupts the tedium that is all other-Rodriguezes of the MLB) will attain that sterling rep. held previously by Oswalt as Roy simmers down to the second staffer.

Not looking too great for Houston, to sum that all up.

Up Next: the NL West

When You Put it That Way...

The Departed: (some more dearly so than others)

Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, Melky Cabrera, Chein-Ming Wang, Phil Coke, Brian Bruney, Austin Jackson, Ian Kennedy, Jose Molina, Eric Hinske, Jerry Hairston Jr. Xavier Nady, Kevin Cash, Shelley Duncan, Michael Dunn

Divisional predictions all coming very, very soon.

The NL East

1) The Philadelphia Phillies a.k.a. the "Flip-a-delphia Flitties"

It was hard for me to put the Phils back atop in a division that to me, seems ripe with dark horse usurpers. Mostly, because of this thought: "but what if Lee AND Halladay?" Which, I hate to say it, would've made me tremble in my fashionable AL boots. But here are the facts, Halladay is sitting sheriff above a rotation that has already proved itself worthy, and he should flourish coming from the AL (East, no less) to the NL.

Bullpen rotation-wise, I still think Brad Lidge is a liability, but if he falters the newly acquired Danys Baez will be there for support. Should shore things up a bit.

Chooch @ catcher, and a Howard/Utley/Rollins/Polanco infield is pretty intimidating, even if J-Roll's best years are behind him and Utley couldn't POSSIBLY have as good a late year/post-season as he did last year. Could he?

Even considering Raul Ibanez not living up to last season's freakishly good performance, the outfield of he, Victorino and Werth is borderline great.

2) The Atlanta Braves a.k.a. "the Atlanta Braves"

Derek Lowe won 15 last year, and if Tim Hudson returns to form, the rotation is formidable. The reason I can say this so assuredly, is that I've got Jair Jurrjens having his breakout, Cy Young caliber season this year. Tommy Hanson, their #4, went 11-4 with a 2.89 last year. Expect him to improve as well. This is a staff on the up-and-up.

The bullpen was solidified with off-season moves. Takashi Saito & Billy Wagner, as well as the Yanks' Michael Dunn should have a hold on things, in some configuration.

The infield, while aging at the corners in Chipper and Troy Glaus, is young & athletic in the middle and proficient all around. There's some pop in there. Lest we forget, Brian McCann is behind the plate; he's young, and he can hit.

I'd be psyched on an outfield of Melky, McLouth and Matt Diaz. Keep in mind Diaz hit .313 last season and McClouth hit 20 dingers. They won't land Damon, but if they do, I say I wouldn't mind filling out that lineup card.

3.) The Florida Marlins a.k.a. "the Big Fish starring Ewan McGregor"

Josh Johnson is a strikeout machine, and granted Anibal Sanchez gets his groove back, I'm confident enough in Nolasco and Volstad and other fillers-in to round out a strong, young, righthand-centric rotation.

The bullpen is the glaring flaw here, and if the question marks of the rotation flop, the thrifty Marlins are going to feel the sting of never buying mercenary arms.

That being said, the Fish infield alone is an RBI powerhouse, with Jorge Cantu manning one, re-upped and allegedly "happy" Uggla killing it at second, and Hanley Ramirez, the best young (or old) shortstop in the game looking to improve on last year's [impressive] line of 24HR, 106RBI, 27SB, and a .342 batting average. He is an MVP frontrunner whose numbers will almost assuredly rise, playing the meanest stop since, well, the man himself.

The outfield is anchored by rookie of the year Chris Coghlan, and his counterparts in Maybin and Ross are middling. The real problematics for these Miami-bound Marlins though, I believe lies in their dearth of accountable pitching options.

4.) the Washington Nationals "a.k.a. the Natinals, obviously"

2010 is the year. Unlike the cellar-dwelling Rays, who left the bottom of the barrel in a hurry, I predict a slower ascent for the Nats. John Lannan, Jason Marquis, and Stephen Strasburg. Something old, something new, etc. I've got [maybe undue] faith in this trio winning a decent crop of games. Time will tell.

They will find a closer in either Capps or Bruney, and the loser will be the 8th man. A strong enough 1-2 punch for me.

The infield is solid, Pudge will be more valuable I imagine for his game calling than whatever's left in his swing, but Dunn is at first and we all know that boy can crush 'em. Adam Kennedy at second. Zimmerman seeming like a guy who will make a nice, quiet career for himself, blasting off at third.

The Nat's outfield boasts Josh Willingham and Elijah Dukes, with Nygier Morgan waiting in the winds. This is nothing extraordinary, but nothing to shake a stick at.

5.) the New York Mets a.k.a. "the New York Mess"

Now, I know this will seem like my dislike for the Mets manifesting in an insult. I promise that this is my sincere prediction. Santana, when not being preserved for next-season duty after the Mets are mathematically eliminated from contention, will pitch like the ace he is, truly one of the best at what he does. It's... everyone else. The Met rotation is filled with mercurial starters who, as illustrated most succinctly by Oli Perez, can be either great or abysmal. When it comes to these Mets lately though, can you do anything but assume the worst? This bad feeling extends to K-Rod, who, I'm sorry, has never made me feel so secure. Maybe Kelvim Escobar can try to make sense of whatever refuse is left in that bullpen.

Let's continue to the infield: Daniel Murphy plays an inept first base. Luis Castillo, as he so wonderfully displayed during Interleague play last year, is no longer the gold-gloved Luis Castillo of old, Reyes is hiding and will continue hiding, to disastrous effects, a hammy injury. David Wright is good, good-looking and prone to getting his brains scrambled like eggs by fastballs. That is all that will be said about David Wright. Add in the rotating door that is the catching position, coupled with their failure to lure Bengie from Frisco, and I see an infield that'll play like a minefield: in that they'll be carrying the dizzied, limbless casualties of early-June away quicker than they can be replaced.

Gary Matthews Jr. is a colorless, back-up bound addition and Jason Bay learned the Met protocol right off the bat by getting injured BEFORE the season. Jeff Francoeur, a player I've always liked, will need to become the centerpiece of whatever pastiche the Mets will frantically glue together during the cataclysmic mid-season meltdown they've now got down to an artform.

They say, it's always darkest just before sunlight. Channeling that, I predict the Mets going all the way to the bottom before they ever rise back to the top.

Up Next: the NL Central

2010 Predictions

I've been warming my hands at the hot stove all off-season, and with pitchers & catchers right around the corner I'm going to start making all of my predictions, division by division, for 2010's winners & losers, dark horses & letdowns, sluggers & slumpers, etcetera & etcetera. Well aware that the free agent market is still rife with talent and the potential for season-shattering injury plagues (Here's looking at you, Mets) are always a real and present danger, I humbly admit now that come October, this will all stand as an embarrassment. But here goes...

First up: the NL East